Massachusetts results: the "purple" center revolts

So how and why did Scott Brown win in Massachusetts, that supposedly deepest "blue" among "blue" states? Because the vital center of the American electorate -- the purple center -- is now in open revolt against Washington policies it simply cannot stomach.

The familiar blue-red depictions of election returns has grossly distorted the reality of the American electorate -- as a whole and in most states -- by ignoring the fact that most voters are independents or moderate-minded Democrats and Republicans. As it happens, most Massachusetts voters fall into one of those categories.

I use the image above (courtesy of the University of Michigan's Mark Newman) as the emblem of this blog because it provides a more accurate picture of the electorate by using shades of purple, not just red and blue, to indicate relative margins of victory by county. What you see in Massachusetts and across New England is a lot of purple. If Democratic Party leaders from President Obama down had this understanding of America voters, they would not have made the mistake of driving so hard to put in place left-leaning policies that may appeal to the 20% of voters who call themselves "liberal," but worry or even alarm the other 80%!

Unfortunately, there are no exit polls to give us breakouts of the Massachusetts, but if we use the independent polls taken over the final weekend as a rough proxy of the election, Scott Brown's winning coalition looked like this:

-- More than two-thirds of independents, who comprise about one-half of all voters, voted for Brown;

-- So did about one-quarter of the registered Democrats, who comprise about 35% of the electorate; and

-- He swept as much as 90% of the Republicans, who comprise about 12% of the electorate.

While Brown crushed Democrat Martha Coakley among independents, he would not have won without the support of a sizable chuck of Democrats -- the centrist Democrats who many Democratic Party leaders try to pretend don't exist.

This came together for Brown because the same moderate independents, Democrats and Republicans -- the purple center -- who repudiated Bush and gave Obama a huge 26-point victory in Massachusetts 14 months ago are now in open rebellion against arrogant, out-of-touch one-party rule in Washington. They want a check against that power. In particular, they have seen the monstrosity of a health care "reform" bill and reject it. No, they aren't ignorant of its supposed benefits and will feel better when they learn more about it. They know perfectly well that it slashes Medicare; raises taxes and premiums; endangers their current plans and health care quality; gives insurance companies big new profits by forcing people to buy expensive policies they don't want or pay stiff penalties; jacks up the huge federal deficit further; imposes enormous new burdens on the fiscally strapped states; is riddled with offensive special deals for special interests from Big Pharma to labor unions; and for all that, leaves millions uninsured.

Sure, Martha Coakley was a lousy candidate, but she would have won this election handily a year ago before the sheer radicalism of the Washington Democrats' agenda became apparent.

This was not just a "wake up call." There have been many of those. This was a last chance warning. Democrats who ignore it will do so at their peril. Many more Democratic-held seats in the House or Senate are no longer "safe." Fortunately, moderate Democrats like Evan Bayh, Joe Lieberman and Jim Webb do seem to get it and have already said publicly that Democrats have to step back and rethink what they are doing. The rest had better listen.

What are your thoughts about the Massachusetts revolt? Post a comment.

UPDATE -- Evan Bayh warns that Democrats risk "catastrophe" if they ignore Massachusetts and must avoid the "furthest left elements of the Dem party attempting to impose their will on the rest of the country." He's got that right.

RELATED -- Scott Brown's top strategist tells Politico that the campaign's polling showed terrorism was a bigger issue for Brown than health care. Brown campaigned against giving terrorists the rights of U.S. citizens, which resonated loudly with Mass. voters after the near-disatrous Christmas terror attack.

UPDATE 2 -- Rasmussen has a poll of how Mass. voters cast their ballots. Brown's margin was even higher among independents than I speculated above -- a whopping 73%! And he won 23% of Democrats, just about what I thought.

Politico.com poll: Brown surges to a nine-point lead, "bottom is falling out" for Coakley

Scott Brown, the "Massachusetts Miracle" maker

The issue now is not whether Brown wins but by how much. From Politico.com:

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted exclusively for POLITICO shows Republican Scott Brown surging to a nine-point advantage over Martha Coakley a day before Massachusetts voters trek to the ballot box to choose a new senator.

According to the survey conducted Sunday evening, Brown leads the Democratic attorney general 52 percent to 43 percent.

"I actually think the bottom is falling out," said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, referring to Coakley's fall in the polls over the last ten days. "I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her."

Brown is crushing Coakley by 41 points among self-described independents in this poll.

Up there in the Bay State, don't forget to vote for Scott Brown tomorrow!

RELATED -- Suffolk University polling shows Brown with an astounding double-digit lead in three "bellweather" communities, chosen because they reliably reflect statewide trends. All three!

Pollster.com looks at all the surveys and concludes that Brown is ahead by between 4 and 11 points.

Stuart Rothenberg moves his analysis of the race from a "Toss-up" to a "Lean Takeover" for Brown.

Any guesses about the Brown margin of victory? Post it in the comments.

Report: Coakley's internal polls said to show Scott Brown leading by two points, 47-45

Steve Kornacki reports:

I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Friday night showed Republican Scott Brown leading by two points, 47 to 45 percent. Her campaign's three-night average for Friday, Thursday and Wednesday is the same -- a 47 to 45 lead for Brown.

This is, obviously, not great news for the Democratic nominee. But it does suggest that Brown's momentum -- which took him from a double-digit gap to the lead in Coakley's poll in about a week's time -- has been arrested. On Wednesday night, Coakley's poll put her ahead by two, 46 to 44. On Thursday night, Brown surged ahead by three, 48 to 45. And on Friday, it was back to a two-point race. In other words, a nail-biter on Tuesday looks likely.

Although this result is in line with the close race depicted by many public polls, color me a bit skeptical. Someone in the Coakley camp keeps leaking her own internal polls which conveniently show that Brown has peaked and Coakley is clawing her way back -- just in time! Would it be a surprise if the next leak showed her dead even again or just a teensy weensy bit ahead -- not enough for her supporters to relax but just enough to urge them on?

Campaigns usually keep their own polls closely guarded, although since Coakley's campaign has often seemed like a football game between two blind teams, so indiscipline may be rampant. Still, although I've noted the leaks of internals from both sides, I'm giving the real weight to the public, independent polls, which have shown Brown building momentum throughout the past 10 days, and all the other evidence of much higher energy, commitment and enthusiasm on the Brown team.

Any thoughts? Post a comment.

RELATED 1/17 -- Unusual Sunday report from analyst Charlie Cook says he nows sees Brown as a slight favorite.

Another independent poll puts Scott Brown in the lead by three points in Massachusetts Senate race

Scott Brown is zeroing in on a stunning upset victory

Now, it's American Research Group out with a poll that gives Scott Brown a three-point lead over the hapless Martha Coakley, 48-45 with only 5% undecided. One interesting thing here is that Coakley is doing much worse among Democrats than Brown is among Republicans, while Brown sweeps independents, 58-37 with a mere 1% undecided! And note that the largest group of undecideds -- 8% -- is among the Democrats, pointing to the potential for Brown to wind up with many more.

More confirmation of my judgment that Martha Coakley is toast.



Got an opinion on the race? Post a comment.

MSNBC's Ed Schultz is a big fat idiot, says "I'd cheat" to beat Scott Brown in Mass.

Referring to the imminent huge upset victory by Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Ed Schultz, self-appointed "progressive" and MSNBC talk show host, said on his radio program, “I’d cheat to keep the bastards out." He said he'd vote 10 times to keep Brown from winning. Listen to the whole thing.

Like some other talk show guys with big mouths, Schultz is a big fat idiot. It's clowns like him that are going to destroy the Democratic Party. Democrat Martha Coakley is a clueless, nasty party hack, but Schultz is worse. He's a true believer, and for that reason, I take him at his word that he would rig elections to prevail.

What's your take on the fat man? Post a comment.

Desperate, panicked Coakley turns to repulsive gutter attack on Scott Brown

Click on image to enlarge

I knew before that Martha Coakley was a clueless party hack. Now she's desperate and panicked since Scott Brown is about to clean her clock on Tuesday. Still, her latest campaign effort is handily the lowest, most repulsive piece of lying crap I've seen in any campaign over the 30 years I've been involved in politics.

The above flyer, which is being mailed to voters by the Massachusetts Democratic Party, has utterly no basis. It's pure malicious crap that is beneath contempt. It's so outrageous that liberal blogger Greg Sargent and Politico's Ben Smith have already called it "brutal" and "over the top."

The good news for Brown is that everything the hapless, dim-witted Coakley does turns into good news for Brown. In this case, the charge against Brown is so vile that no one will believe it. Instead, even more Democrats will say to the themselves, "Wow, this Coakley is really a nasty, despicable loser. I'm voting for Brown."

Much more on the race here, here and here.

Any thoughts? Post a comment.

Massachusetts Senate race: Martha Coakley is toast

Martha Coakley: fading...fading...faded...

I'm calling this one right now. With four days to go to the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat, Democrat Martha Coakley is already toast, and GOPer Scott Brown is headed for an bombshell upset victory.

Here's why:

-- The latest public poll shows Brown with a a four-point lead over Coakley, 50% to 46%.

-- The only polling outfit that surveyed the race twice showed Brown surging from nine points behind 10 days ago to within two points of Coakley three days ago.

-- Reports are circulating that Coakley's own internal campaign polls show Brown nipping at her heals, which has set off a panicky feeling of looming disaster.

-- Coakley and company are sure looking and acting panicky, flooding the airwaves with negative attack ads designed to knock down the high favorable rating all the polls show Brown has with voters. Going negative a few days before an election rarely works and can alienate the very voters you want to persuade. It's a desperate Hail Mary.

-- On Thursday, taking all this into account, the respected non-partisan political analyst, Stuart Rothenberg, changed his rating of the race from "Narrow Advantage" for Coakley to a "Toss-Up."

In short, Coakley is in lousy shape and getting desperate. Brown is in great shape and has all the momentum on his side as he rolls into the final weekend. While the idea that a Republican might win Ted Kennedy's seat in "blue" Massachusetts seemed a bit crazy two weeks ago, it's now Brown's race to lose.

Why? Three simple reasons:

-- People are pissed. I mean, mighty pissed -- at the seemingly endless recession and unemployment, the whacky zillion-dollar bailouts, the stimulus that failed to stimulate anything, and that Frankenstein monster of a health care "reform" bill that plods on with a life of its own threatening to slash Medicare and raise taxes and premiums on everyone who already has health insurance (which includes, not incidentally, nearly everyone in Massachusetts) while not reducing health costs or the federal deficit.

-- Coakley is a perfectly lousy candidate. Apparently, she was deluded into thinking that she was a shoo-in by virtue of being a "popular" state attorney general who won a multi-candidate Democratic primary for Senate in a low-turnout special election. After her primary win, smugly confident of annointment on January 19 as the Democratic Party's choice for "Ted Kennedy"s seat," she went into hibernation while Brown was out on the hustings cleaning up. Since waking up the week before last, she has demonstrated a party hack's affinity for fat cat lobbyists, an unattractive thuggishness, and an amazingly impolitic capacity to say things that show distain for the little people whose votes she seeks.

-- Scott Brown is a smart, attractive guy, a pragmatic, hard-working state legislator, and a moderate, anti-tax and spending conservative who doesn't scare anyone with right-wing baloney.

The people of Massachusetts -- moderate Democrats and independents as well as Republicans -- are about to send Washington the message that they don't like untrammeled one-party power. They don't want a Coakley who will go to Washington and do what she's told (it would be a different matter if the Democrats had a candidate with both brains and backbone like this guy). They want Scott Brown to go down here and act as a check on runaway ideological government. I'm with them.

What's your opinion? Post a comment.

UPDATES -- Another new poll, sponsored by Pajamas Media, has Brown ahead by an astounding 15 points. Even if you figure that conservative PJ is not an independent or impartial poll commissioner, it's really hard not to see the Brown-surging trend in this survey too.

Like Stuart Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, another independent analyst, looks at the signs of Brown's momentum in the Massachusetts race and moves it to a "toss up."

Byron York reports in the conservative Washington Examiner that a well-connected Democrat has told him that internal Coakley polls show her trailing by five points.

Steve Kornacki has heard inside dope too -- that Coakley's internal tracking poll Thursday night showed her trailing Brown by three, 47-44.

LOTS MORE smart blogging about the Brown-Coakley race at Legal Insurrection.

UPDATE - 1/16 - Brown moves ahead on Intrade.

RELATED -- Blogger Sissy Willis zeroes in on a key part of Brown's support -- Democrats.

GoonGate: Meet Martha Coakley, clueless hack

Massachusetts AG Martha Coakley looks on as a beefy campaign

aide "handles the press" for her

No sooner had I posted my exhortation to Massachusetts voters to elect Scott Brown to the Senate next week to check one-party power in Washington than his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley, turned in a stunning performance as exactly the sort of clueless party hack that all of us can do without.

Last night, Coakley was on her way out of a big-ticket fundraiser in D.C. where dozens of lobbyists for the health care and other industries ponied up to back her bid to take Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in a special election next Tuesday. She paused on the sidewalk to answer a few questions from reporters, including one from CNN. Then, John McCormack, who writes for the conservative Weekly Standard, asked her whether she stood by the foolish or confused or uniformed answer she had given at a debate with Brown the night before about terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan. That's a fair question about a major topic in anyone's campaign for Senate. She could have used McCormack's question to clarify what she said at the debate. Instead, she ignored him and said, "I'm sorry, did someone else have a question?" She then answered another reporter's question and walked away.

McCormack tried to walk along with her, asking why health care lobbyists were chipping in big bucks to support her -- another fair and obvious question.

Any classy candidate with an ounce of wits would have given the guy an answer - some answer! How about, "Our campaign has broad support from every quarter, especially from the people of Massachusetts."

Instead, a beefy guy by the name of Michael Meehan stepped into McCormack's face, either shoved or backed him into a metal railing causing him to fall, demanded to see his press credentials, even though they were on the public street, and body blocked him from getting close to Coakley again. Turns out that Meehan is the head of an outfit called Blue Line Strategic Communications and a long-time media consultant (no kidding!) for various Democratic Party organizations and candidates, currently on loan from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to help Coakley's campaign.

I hope Coakley can trade Meehan in for some money or something, because this guy clearly knows nothing about handling reporters or helping candidates with their communications. On the contrary, he's helped Coakley create what could be an election-losing disaster for her.

But it's not Meehan's fault, even if he is a lout and a goon. He was taking his cues from Coakley, who could have just given McCormack an answer. Even if it was a stupid answer, how much harm can a guy who writes for an online conservative publication do to her by posting the unflattering answer on his blog?

I knew before that Coakley is a party hack. Now I know she's clueless too, unable to stand up to scrutinizing inquiries or to defend or explain the positions she's taken on critically important issues that will come before the United States Senate. All the more reason to elect Scott Brown.

Here's some video of Meehan executing his communications strategy.

Any thoughts about this? Post a comment.

Elect Scott Brown to the Senate -- Put a vital check on the one-party monopoly of power in Washington

Scott Brown, running for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts

In the special election to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the death of Ted Kennedy next Tuesday (January 19), I hope Massachusetts voters will elect the GOP candidate, Scott Brown, for one compelling reason: to put a critically important check on the total monopoly of power now held by Democrats in Washington. By reducing the Senate Democrats' filibuster-proof majority by just one, the Democrats will have to work with at least a few Republicans -- or even just one -- to pass major legislation. And that's a good thing for the country, Massachusetts and, I would argue, the Democratic Party.

I'm a Democrat. But over the past year, it's become clear that holding total power, with the White House and huge majorities in both Houses of Congress, has caused the Democratic Party to go off the deep end. Democrats in Washington have forgotten that to make real progress, they must attract and hold the vital center in American politics -- the moderate and independent voters who gave Barack Obama the Presidency and provided the margin of victory for scores of Democrats in 2006 and 2008. Wielding big majorities, the leadership of the party has pushed a lot farther to the left on many issues than those voters want to go. In the process, politics being what it is, they have dragged the more moderate Democrats on Capitol Hill along.

No where is this more obvious than in the case of the Senate health care "reform" bill. As it stands, this wretched mishmosh of a "reform" will slash Medicare by a devastating half trillion dollars, impose heavy new taxes on union workers and middle class families fortunate enough to have so-called "Cadillac" plans, force young people to buy expensive insurance they may not want, and stick states already facing huge deficits with massive new unfunded mandates. Meanwhile, it will leave millions of the uninsured still uninsured and won't reduce health care costs but increase them, notwithstanding the phony 10-year accounting designed to make it look otherwise. Plus, the bill is filled with dodgy deals for individual Senators. Driven by the fervent wish of the party's left to achieve "reform," Congress is on the verge of enacting this monstrosity.

If the Senate leadership had been obliged to negotiate in good faith with even a single Republican -- say, Maine's Olympia Snowe, a smart, responsible moderate -- that process would have resulted in the elimination of many of the bill's faults and in some added improvements. Snowe did work with Democrats early on and voted to report a bill out of her committee. Then, she was shunted aside and humiliated so that not surprisingly, she opposes the current bill.

Electing Brown next week may not change the outcome on health care, since the Democratic leadership may find a way to push the bill through before he gets to Washington (or in a pinch, the House could pass the Senate version, eliminating the need for another Senate vote). But it will change the dynamic on Capitol Hill for the rest of the current Congressional session. Isn;t the essential ingredient of responsible bi-partisanship in our politics to make sure that both parties are really needed to some extent to make a decision?

Of course, the Democrats will still wield enormous power. It just won't be quite so unchecked. That's' good for everyone, including the Democratic Party. The way things are going now, Democrats will suffer a huge defeat in the 2010 elections, possibly even losing their majorities.

Brown's Democratic opponent, state Attorney General Martha Coakley, is the adequate but undistinguished candidate of the all-powerful but stultifyingly dull Massachusetts Democratic Party machine. No "Liberal Lioness," that's for sure, Coakley seemed ready a week ago to accept coronation and head to D.C. to cast votes robotically in tune with Harry Reid.

Brown is a smart, attractive, seasoned state legislator. He's a moderate conservative, a tax-conscious Republican cut pretty much from the same cloth as Mitt Romney, Chris Christie and other northeastern GOPers. He's pro-choice with narrow exceptions. He's not about to launch any Tea Party revolutions.

But the main thing about Scott Brown is this: Harry Reid will not have Brown's vote in his pocket.

What's you take on the race to fill Teddy seat? Post a comment.

Related: A new Rasmussen poll puts Brown and Coakley withing two points.

Much more about the Brown campaign at Legal Insurrection and Sissy Willis.

Welcome Sissy Willis readers.

Huge upset developing in Mass. race for Teddy's Senate seat, as new poll show Republican Scott Brown pulling ahead

Scott Brown, GOP candidate in special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat

A year ago, Barack Obama carried Massachusetts over John McCain by a whopping 62% to 36%, and John Kerry glided to victory in the Senate race with 63% of the vote. In 2000, Ted Kennedy was releected to the Senate with 73% of the vote. In 2006, he won 69%.

Now, a new poll shows a virtual tie in the race to fill the seat held by Kennedy in the Senate since 1962 -- with Republican Scott Brown actually edging democrat Martha Coakley. Brown's election would end the Senate Democrats' ability to control the Senate with a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority. Since Massachusetts is the bluest of all the blue states -- it was the one and only state that George McGovern won in 1972 (he also took D.C.) -- a GOP victory would be a huge upset, a bombshell, a true game changer, a political upheaval (add your own cliche; they're all on the mark):

The Massachusetts Senate race is now a toss up.

Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47. Here are the major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs:

-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed.

-In a trend that's going to cause Democrats trouble all year, voters disgusted with both parties are planning to vote for the one out of power. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Brown's standing is that only 21% of Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of Congressional Republicans...but at the same time only 33% view Congressional Democrats favorably. And among voters who have a negative take on both parties, who account for more than 20% of the electorate, Brown leads 74-21.

-Because he's basically been untouched so far, Brown's favorability spread is a remarkable +32, at 57/25. For some perspective on how good those numbers are, Bob McDonnell was at a +20 spread with Virginia voters in our final poll there before going on to a 17 point victory.

PPP goes on to point out that Coakley is very much still in the race and can pull it out by energizing reliable Democrats to vote, linking her campaign to Ted Kennedy's legacy and tying Brown to the national Republicans -- not a popualr bunch in Massachusetts.

Still, this is the first competitive Senate race in the Bay State in a long time.

Thoughts? Post a comment.

Related: Hmm...on the other hand, the Boston Globe has just released its survey which shows Coakley ahead by a comfortable 15-point margin! The PPP poll has a larger sample and a smaller margin of error. Also, PPP is a Democratic polling firm, so it's not a GOP shill. Overall, I'd say put your money on the PPP poll, since special elections have notoriously low turnout numbers. The Globe results probably reflect accurately voters' preferences in a larger turnout.

Forget the polls: new campaign barometer is who's winning the "Tweet race"

Tweet race: comparation of Twitter rankings of Brown and Coakley (click to enlarge)

Over at Legal Insurrection, conservative blogger William A. Jacobson has been keeping close track of the Massachusetts special election on January 19 to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat. A big booster of GOP candidate Scott Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley, Jacobson spotlights in a post today an intriguing new way to track how the candidates are doing -- the number of Tweets they're getting on Twitter, followers they're attracting on Facebook and other measures of online popularity.

Of course, after Barack Obama's campaign used the internet to generate excitement among younger voters and rake in zillions in small contributions, there is no question that how a candidate is doing online is potentially a big deal.

So how are they doing? According to Jacobson, Brown is way ahead and surging. Of course, in usually reliably Democratic Massachusetts, Tweets and Facebook friends from outside the commonwealth may not matter much. But then again...?

Any thoughts? Post a comment.

Related -- The respected, non-partisan Cook Political Report has changed its categorization of the Massachusetts Senate race from "Solid Democratic" to "Leans Democratic."

Unexpected change from a blue state? GOPer Scott Brown could win Ted Kennedy's Senate seat

It's Scott Brown vs. Martha Coakley for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat

Talk about game changers. Pigs can surely fly, if a Republican can win Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in deep blue Massachusetts against one of the state's highest-profile Democrats, Attorney General Martha Coakley. It just might happen in the January 9th special election, if the one and only public poll of the race showing Coakley ahead by only 50% to 41% is right:

State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided

Brown's surprising strength is coming mostly from independent voters:

Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In Massachusetts, however, Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans and it is very difficult for the GOP to compete except in special circumstances. Eight percent (8%) of Democrats remain undecided while just 3% of Republicans are in that category.

Brown is a relative unknown, compared to Coakley, but that may be an advantage in stirring enough enthusiasm to get his voters to the polls:

Twenty-one percent (21%) of those likely to vote in the special election have a very favorable opinion of Coakley, while 22% have a Very Unfavorable view.

For Brown, the numbers are 25% very favorable and 5% very unfavorable.

Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.

If Brown wins, the Senate Democrats will no longer have the magic 60 votes to block filibusters. Naturally, that has the conservative blogosphere excited about his candidacy. Blogger William Jacobson has long been out in front pushing Brown's campaign. Now, it's gone viral on the right and the left, as you can see here, here, here and here.

Thoughts? Post a comment.

(Welcome Legal Insurrection readers)