Massachusetts results: the "purple" center revolts

So how and why did Scott Brown win in Massachusetts, that supposedly deepest "blue" among "blue" states? Because the vital center of the American electorate -- the purple center -- is now in open revolt against Washington policies it simply cannot stomach.

The familiar blue-red depictions of election returns has grossly distorted the reality of the American electorate -- as a whole and in most states -- by ignoring the fact that most voters are independents or moderate-minded Democrats and Republicans. As it happens, most Massachusetts voters fall into one of those categories.

I use the image above (courtesy of the University of Michigan's Mark Newman) as the emblem of this blog because it provides a more accurate picture of the electorate by using shades of purple, not just red and blue, to indicate relative margins of victory by county. What you see in Massachusetts and across New England is a lot of purple. If Democratic Party leaders from President Obama down had this understanding of America voters, they would not have made the mistake of driving so hard to put in place left-leaning policies that may appeal to the 20% of voters who call themselves "liberal," but worry or even alarm the other 80%!

Unfortunately, there are no exit polls to give us breakouts of the Massachusetts, but if we use the independent polls taken over the final weekend as a rough proxy of the election, Scott Brown's winning coalition looked like this:

-- More than two-thirds of independents, who comprise about one-half of all voters, voted for Brown;

-- So did about one-quarter of the registered Democrats, who comprise about 35% of the electorate; and

-- He swept as much as 90% of the Republicans, who comprise about 12% of the electorate.

While Brown crushed Democrat Martha Coakley among independents, he would not have won without the support of a sizable chuck of Democrats -- the centrist Democrats who many Democratic Party leaders try to pretend don't exist.

This came together for Brown because the same moderate independents, Democrats and Republicans -- the purple center -- who repudiated Bush and gave Obama a huge 26-point victory in Massachusetts 14 months ago are now in open rebellion against arrogant, out-of-touch one-party rule in Washington. They want a check against that power. In particular, they have seen the monstrosity of a health care "reform" bill and reject it. No, they aren't ignorant of its supposed benefits and will feel better when they learn more about it. They know perfectly well that it slashes Medicare; raises taxes and premiums; endangers their current plans and health care quality; gives insurance companies big new profits by forcing people to buy expensive policies they don't want or pay stiff penalties; jacks up the huge federal deficit further; imposes enormous new burdens on the fiscally strapped states; is riddled with offensive special deals for special interests from Big Pharma to labor unions; and for all that, leaves millions uninsured.

Sure, Martha Coakley was a lousy candidate, but she would have won this election handily a year ago before the sheer radicalism of the Washington Democrats' agenda became apparent.

This was not just a "wake up call." There have been many of those. This was a last chance warning. Democrats who ignore it will do so at their peril. Many more Democratic-held seats in the House or Senate are no longer "safe." Fortunately, moderate Democrats like Evan Bayh, Joe Lieberman and Jim Webb do seem to get it and have already said publicly that Democrats have to step back and rethink what they are doing. The rest had better listen.

What are your thoughts about the Massachusetts revolt? Post a comment.

UPDATE -- Evan Bayh warns that Democrats risk "catastrophe" if they ignore Massachusetts and must avoid the "furthest left elements of the Dem party attempting to impose their will on the rest of the country." He's got that right.

RELATED -- Scott Brown's top strategist tells Politico that the campaign's polling showed terrorism was a bigger issue for Brown than health care. Brown campaigned against giving terrorists the rights of U.S. citizens, which resonated loudly with Mass. voters after the near-disatrous Christmas terror attack.

UPDATE 2 -- Rasmussen has a poll of how Mass. voters cast their ballots. Brown's margin was even higher among independents than I speculated above -- a whopping 73%! And he won 23% of Democrats, just about what I thought.

Politico.com poll: Brown surges to a nine-point lead, "bottom is falling out" for Coakley

Scott Brown, the "Massachusetts Miracle" maker

The issue now is not whether Brown wins but by how much. From Politico.com:

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted exclusively for POLITICO shows Republican Scott Brown surging to a nine-point advantage over Martha Coakley a day before Massachusetts voters trek to the ballot box to choose a new senator.

According to the survey conducted Sunday evening, Brown leads the Democratic attorney general 52 percent to 43 percent.

"I actually think the bottom is falling out," said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, referring to Coakley's fall in the polls over the last ten days. "I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her."

Brown is crushing Coakley by 41 points among self-described independents in this poll.

Up there in the Bay State, don't forget to vote for Scott Brown tomorrow!

RELATED -- Suffolk University polling shows Brown with an astounding double-digit lead in three "bellweather" communities, chosen because they reliably reflect statewide trends. All three!

Pollster.com looks at all the surveys and concludes that Brown is ahead by between 4 and 11 points.

Stuart Rothenberg moves his analysis of the race from a "Toss-up" to a "Lean Takeover" for Brown.

Any guesses about the Brown margin of victory? Post it in the comments.

Report: Coakley's internal polls said to show Scott Brown leading by two points, 47-45

Steve Kornacki reports:

I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Friday night showed Republican Scott Brown leading by two points, 47 to 45 percent. Her campaign's three-night average for Friday, Thursday and Wednesday is the same -- a 47 to 45 lead for Brown.

This is, obviously, not great news for the Democratic nominee. But it does suggest that Brown's momentum -- which took him from a double-digit gap to the lead in Coakley's poll in about a week's time -- has been arrested. On Wednesday night, Coakley's poll put her ahead by two, 46 to 44. On Thursday night, Brown surged ahead by three, 48 to 45. And on Friday, it was back to a two-point race. In other words, a nail-biter on Tuesday looks likely.

Although this result is in line with the close race depicted by many public polls, color me a bit skeptical. Someone in the Coakley camp keeps leaking her own internal polls which conveniently show that Brown has peaked and Coakley is clawing her way back -- just in time! Would it be a surprise if the next leak showed her dead even again or just a teensy weensy bit ahead -- not enough for her supporters to relax but just enough to urge them on?

Campaigns usually keep their own polls closely guarded, although since Coakley's campaign has often seemed like a football game between two blind teams, so indiscipline may be rampant. Still, although I've noted the leaks of internals from both sides, I'm giving the real weight to the public, independent polls, which have shown Brown building momentum throughout the past 10 days, and all the other evidence of much higher energy, commitment and enthusiasm on the Brown team.

Any thoughts? Post a comment.

RELATED 1/17 -- Unusual Sunday report from analyst Charlie Cook says he nows sees Brown as a slight favorite.

Another independent poll puts Scott Brown in the lead by three points in Massachusetts Senate race

Scott Brown is zeroing in on a stunning upset victory

Now, it's American Research Group out with a poll that gives Scott Brown a three-point lead over the hapless Martha Coakley, 48-45 with only 5% undecided. One interesting thing here is that Coakley is doing much worse among Democrats than Brown is among Republicans, while Brown sweeps independents, 58-37 with a mere 1% undecided! And note that the largest group of undecideds -- 8% -- is among the Democrats, pointing to the potential for Brown to wind up with many more.

More confirmation of my judgment that Martha Coakley is toast.



Got an opinion on the race? Post a comment.

MSNBC's Ed Schultz is a big fat idiot, says "I'd cheat" to beat Scott Brown in Mass.

Referring to the imminent huge upset victory by Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Ed Schultz, self-appointed "progressive" and MSNBC talk show host, said on his radio program, “I’d cheat to keep the bastards out." He said he'd vote 10 times to keep Brown from winning. Listen to the whole thing.

Like some other talk show guys with big mouths, Schultz is a big fat idiot. It's clowns like him that are going to destroy the Democratic Party. Democrat Martha Coakley is a clueless, nasty party hack, but Schultz is worse. He's a true believer, and for that reason, I take him at his word that he would rig elections to prevail.

What's your take on the fat man? Post a comment.

Uh, oh, "virus" infected NY-23 computerized voting machines

A local newspaper in upstate New York's 23rd Congressional District, scene of the hard-fought and nationally prominent special election (won -- so far anyway -- by the Democrat after his Conservative opponent conceded) reports that a computer virus may have "tainted' the results:

GOUVERNEUR, NY - The computerized voting machines used by many voters in the 23rd district had a computer virus - tainting the results, not just from those machines known to have been infected, but casting doubt on the accuracy of counts retrieved from any of the machines.

Conservative Doug Hoffman conceded to Democrat Bill Owens on election night when reported results had him trailing by about 5,000 votes (owens was then quickly sworn in as a member of the House of Representives). Recently, Hoffman "unconceded" when the gap narrowed, albeit not enough to put him ahead. As the remaining absentee ballots are counted, a real donneybrook could be developing over the virus "taint."

If nothing else, this serves as a warning to candidates everywhere not to concede in a fairly close race until all the votes have actually been counted! Beyond that, the idea that the computer might eat your vote is a little unsettling.

Any thoughts? Post a comment.

As right wing smashes "RINO" in NY-23, the Democrat wins! But another GOPer. Rob Astorino wins more a big race without right-wing help

Big Conservative loser, Doug Hoffman




Big Republican winner, Rob Astorino



Of course, the big stories of election night, 2009, are the Republican victories in Virginia, where Barack Obama's 2008 win had set up high expectations of that traditionally "red" state turning "blue," and in New Jersey, often regarded as among the deepest of the "blue." (Looks like purple is getting to be an even more popular color!)

In some ways, though, the most fascinating outcome of the night was in the special election to fill an historically Republican House seat in upstate New York's 23rd Congressional District. There, Doug Hoffman, a conservative candidate running on the Conservative Party line after failing to get the GOP nomination, ran a tough campaign against the Republican nominee, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava. Hoffman drew an outpouring of support from conservatives around the nation who regarded Scozzafava's nomination as an abomination, due to her having taken a wide range of moderate and even liberal positions. Hoffman was endorsed by Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty and a veritable who's who of the conservative movement. And he appeared so many times in recent days on Sean Hannity's and Glenn Beck's TV programs that it was a wonder he had any time to campaign in the district!

Hoffman did succeed in driving Scozzafava out of the race. She withdrew last weekend and then threw her support to Democrat Bill Owens. Conservative pundits, bloggers and "tea party" activists, along with Hannity, Beck and other on-air personalities, all whooped it up about this big victory over the detested "RINO," Scozzafava. On the eve of the election, the righties were throwing down the gauntlet to moderate Republicans everywhere, threatening a dozen or more challenges next year, based on their great success in NY-23.

Only one problem with that. Hoffman lost, and the Democrat, Bill Owens, won! It's hard to see that the whole Hoffman phenomenon amounts to anything more than a right-wing hissy fit that winds proving the contention of level-headed Republican leaders that their party needs to welcome folks into a "big tent" or risk losing more elections to Democrats. Not incidentally, Owens was chosen as a moderate Democrat who would reflect the mood and views of voters in a district that has been reliably Republican for a century but not necessarily all that conservative. Good call by the Democrats.

Meanwhile, in downstate Westchester County (population, about one million) -- running a race for County Executive that received virtually no media attention -- Rob Astorino, host of a Catholic radio show and a sometime politician, beat a three-term incumbent Democrat by a whopping 58-42 margin, despite the county's huge, two-to-one Democratic advantage in registration and its recent history of delivering big victory margins to Democrats.

Unlike Hoffman, Astorino did not have big national Republican and conservative names endorsing and campaigning for him: no Sarah Palin, no Fred Thompson, no Sean Hannity, no Glenn Beck. Astorino also had no upsurge of excitement in the right-wing blogosphere and no deluge of outside campaign contributions. Astorino's campaign also had basically one message: taxes in Westchester County are too high, and it's the long-time Democratic County Executive's fault.

So there was Hoffman moaning and groaning on Fox News about the nation going to hell in a basket due to those tax and spend liberal Democrats and their me-too RINO chums like Dede, supposedly to inspire the GOP "base" to new heights of enthusiasm and voting in a heavily Republican district. He lost. Meanwhile, Astorino ran a conventional campaign and delivered a simple, low-key message that resonated with voters in an overwhelmingly Democratic county. He won big.

I wonder which approach makes more sense?

What are your thoughts about Election 2009? Post a comment.

UPDATE: In New York City's other big suburb, Nassau County, the Republican challenger to the Democratic incumbent County Executive appears to have lost by only 237 votes. No word on any recount yet, but such a tiny margin is bound to be challenged.