Saturday, July 4, 2009

Major split in Iranian leadership as "most important" group of clerics calls election illegitimate

The holy city of Qum, Iran

The movement for change in Iran is far from over, as the organization of religious scholars founded by Ayatolah Khomeini himself has thrown its weight on the side of the reformers and against "Supreme Leader" Khamenei and would-be President Ahmadinejad. From The New York Times:

The most important group of religious leaders in Iran has called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate, an act of defiance against the country’s supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country’s clerical establishment.

The statement by the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum represents a significant, if so far symbolic, setback for the government and especially the authority of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose word is supposed to be final. The government has tried to paint the opposition and its top presidential candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, as criminals and traitors, a strategy that now becomes more difficult — if not impossible.

“This crack in the clerical establishment and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic,” said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. “Remember they are going against an election verified and sanctified by Khamenei.”

Since the election, the bulk of the clerical establishment in the holy city of Qum, an important religious and political center of power, has remained largely silent, leaving many to wonder when, or if, the nation’s most senior religious leaders would jump into the events that have posed the most significant challenge to the country’s leadership since the Islamic Revolution. With its statement Saturday, the association of clerics — formed under the leadership of the revolution’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — came down squarely on the side of the reform movement.

This is a huge split in the Iranian leadership. It's hard to see how Khamenei can hold onto his authority without at least mollifying the clerics -- perhaps by sacrificing Ahmadinejad. Of course, Ahmadi may not like being sacrificed and might keep control of the security services, although that will be a neat trick without Khamenei.

Any thoughts? Post a comment.

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