Sunday, January 17, 2010

Report: Coakley's internal polls said to show Scott Brown leading by two points, 47-45

Steve Kornacki reports:

I've been told reliably that Martha Coakley's internal poll for Friday night showed Republican Scott Brown leading by two points, 47 to 45 percent. Her campaign's three-night average for Friday, Thursday and Wednesday is the same -- a 47 to 45 lead for Brown.

This is, obviously, not great news for the Democratic nominee. But it does suggest that Brown's momentum -- which took him from a double-digit gap to the lead in Coakley's poll in about a week's time -- has been arrested. On Wednesday night, Coakley's poll put her ahead by two, 46 to 44. On Thursday night, Brown surged ahead by three, 48 to 45. And on Friday, it was back to a two-point race. In other words, a nail-biter on Tuesday looks likely.

Although this result is in line with the close race depicted by many public polls, color me a bit skeptical. Someone in the Coakley camp keeps leaking her own internal polls which conveniently show that Brown has peaked and Coakley is clawing her way back -- just in time! Would it be a surprise if the next leak showed her dead even again or just a teensy weensy bit ahead -- not enough for her supporters to relax but just enough to urge them on?

Campaigns usually keep their own polls closely guarded, although since Coakley's campaign has often seemed like a football game between two blind teams, so indiscipline may be rampant. Still, although I've noted the leaks of internals from both sides, I'm giving the real weight to the public, independent polls, which have shown Brown building momentum throughout the past 10 days, and all the other evidence of much higher energy, commitment and enthusiasm on the Brown team.

Any thoughts? Post a comment.

RELATED 1/17 -- Unusual Sunday report from analyst Charlie Cook says he nows sees Brown as a slight favorite.

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